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Feb 13, 2026
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SHORT
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Expedia (EXPE) down ~5% despite revenue growth; Pinterest (PINS) issued weak outlook focusing on AI costs; Logistics stocks falling on fears of AI automation (e.g., "Karaoke company turned AI trucker" disrupting freight). The narrative has shifted to "Sell First, Ask Questions Later" for any industry where AI agents could theoretically replace the service. The market is pricing in terminal value risk for software/service intermediaries. SHORT. The "AI Scare Trade" momentum is currently too strong to fight; these stocks are guilty until proven innocent. Oversold bounce; AI disruption takes longer than the market fears. |
Bloomberg Markets
Inflation Data Calms Markets | Bloomberg Open...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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Airbnb (ABNB) upgraded by Deutsche Bank; viewed as "more protected" from AI disruption than peers like Expedia. Unlike generic booking engines (commoditized data), ABNB relies on unique, non-standard inventory and brand loyalty, making it harder for an AI agent to simply bypass the platform. LONG. A relative value play within the travel sector against the AI disruption narrative. Consumer spending slowdown; regulatory bans on short-term rentals. |
Bloomberg Markets
Inflation Data Calms Markets | Bloomberg Open...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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Applied Materials (AMAT) beat earnings with strong guidance due to AI demand. Rivian (RIVN) posted its first-ever annual gross profit. Moderna (MRNA) beat revenue estimates on unexpected Covid vaccine demand. In a market dominated by "AI Anxiety," investors are rewarding tangible execution. AMAT confirms the "Picks and Shovels" hardware trade is intact. RIVN proves operational efficiency is possible in a slump. MRNA shows legacy cash flows are stickier than predicted. LONG. These are idiosyncratic winners in a choppy macro environment. Broader market sell-off dragging down high-beta names; RIVN remains capital intensive. |
Bloomberg Markets
Inflation Data Calms Markets | Bloomberg Open...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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Rivian reported its first annual gross profit and announced a new, cheaper mid-size SUV. Stock up ~20-26%. Achieving gross profit profitability validates the business model in a difficult EV market, separating it from failing competitors. LONG Rivian on execution success. Continued cash burn and broader EV demand slowdown. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/13/2026...
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Feb 13, 2026
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AVOID
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Expedia posted its best Q4 in three years, yet the stock fell 5.8%. The market is ignoring fundamentals due to "AI Anxiety"—the fear that AI agents will replace travel booking platforms entirely. Good earnings don't matter if the terminal value is questioned. AVOID Expedia (Value trap risk). AI fears prove overblown and stock rerates on fundamentals. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/13/2026...
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Feb 13, 2026
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SHORT
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DraftKings missed revenue/profit expectations and gave a bleak forecast. Stock down 15%. High-growth consumer stocks with no earnings support are being punished severely in this rotation. SHORT DraftKings. Unexpected legalization in new states boosting TAM. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/13/2026...
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Feb 12, 2026
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AVOID
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"We're looking at the coast guard, FEMA, and TSA" being impacted by the shutdown, while ICE is shielded. The TSA falls under DHS. During past shutdowns, unpaid TSA agents have staged "sick-outs" (blue flu), causing massive airport security delays. This directly impacts airline efficiency, passenger sentiment, and short-term booking volumes. AVOID or SHORT the travel sector (Airlines/Booking) going into the weekend risk of a TSA slowdown. The shutdown might be resolved hours before the deadline, causing a relief rally in travel stocks. |
Bloomberg Markets
Schumer Threatens to Block DHS Funding, Raisi...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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"ICE is probably going to be shielded by any shutdown considering that the agency was given funding to the tune of $75,000,000." The market often sells "DHS-related stocks" indiscriminately during a DHS shutdown headline. However, private prison operators (GEO/CXW) primarily contract with ICE for detention centers. Since ICE funding is legally ring-fenced, these companies face no revenue interruption, creating a mispricing opportunity if they sell off with the broader sector. LONG or WATCH for a dip-buy opportunity on the "DHS Shutdown" headline, knowing the specific sub-agency (ICE) is solvent. Broader market volatility or political rhetoric specifically targeting private detention centers independent of funding status. |
Bloomberg Markets
Schumer Threatens to Block DHS Funding, Raisi...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Duke Energy (DUK) signed deals for 4.5 Gigawatts of power with Microsoft and Compass. Hyperscalers (Google, Amazon) are projecting $660B in Capex for 2026. The "AI Arms Race" has moved from a software story to a physical infrastructure story. Utilities with capacity (Duke) are the bottleneck and guaranteed beneficiaries, while Hyperscalers are signaling infinite demand for compute. LONG. Buy the picks and shovels (Utilities) and the aggressive builders (Hyperscalers). Regulatory caps on power usage or AI monetization failure. |
Bloomberg Markets
Kraft Heinz Pauses Split, Paramount Sweetens ...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Vertiv shares surging 15.4% on strong demand from hyperscalers. As Big Tech spends $650B+ on AI infrastructure (data centers), they require massive power and cooling solutions. Vertiv is a "pick and shovel" play on this physical infrastructure build-out. LONG. Direct beneficiary of the CapEx super-cycle mentioned by Ives. Valuation concerns after rapid run-up. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Winners vs Losers on Wall Street | Open In...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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Mattel holiday sales fell; shares indicated down nearly 30%. The company is suffering from "toy fatigue" and lacks the high-margin, recurring revenue engine that Hasbro has in gaming. SHORT. The divergence between "gaming/collectors" (HAS) and "traditional toys" (MAT) is widening. Oversold bounce or potential M&A rumors. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Winners vs Losers on Wall Street | Open In...
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